第142次【朗润¨格政】论坛
The 142nd NSD Policy Talk
滞留！不平等加剧下的美国人口流动固化和滞留人口之殇
Stranded! How Changing Productivity Shocks Raised Inequality, Suppressed Internal US Migration, and Hurt Those “Left Behind”
2020年1月16日（周四）下午14:00-15:30
北京大学国家发展研究院致福轩大教室
14:00-15:30pm, Thursday, 16th January
Zhifuxuan Classroom, National School of Development, Peking University
主讲
Tamim Bayoumi博士
国际货币基金组织战略政策审核部副主任
Presenter
Dr. Tamim Bayoumi
Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review (SPR) Department, IMF
语言：英文
Language：English
Abstract
We develop a spatial model which links rising house prices, especially in prosperous “superstar” cities, stagnant wages in less prosperous metro areas, and falling migration as the cutting edge of productivity moved from manufacturing to IT. We find strong evidence for the predictions of the model, including the concentration of productivity shocks in prosperous cities with limited land availability and for the model prediction for a strong asymmetry in proximate causes of falling long-distance migration, the type that is most linked to jobs. For those migrating uphill, from a less to a more prosperous location, lower mobility is driven by increasing house price inequality, as the disincentives from higher house prices dominate the incentives from higher earnings. By contrast, increasing income inequality drives the fall in downhill migration as the disincentives from lower earnings dominate the incentives from lower house prices. The model underlines the plight of those trapped in decaying metro areas—those “left behind.”
Introduction of Presenter
Tamim Bayoumi is a Deputy Director in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review (SPR) Department. He holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University. He has worked in a variety of roles at the Fund, including heading the divisions responsible for the US and Canada, the World Economic Outlook, and exchange rate and macroeconomic modeling. He has published widely in academic circles, including the book Unfinished Business about the historical origins of the 2008 North Atlantic crisis, which was an FT Economics Book of the Year in 2017. He is currently responsible for SPR’s work on trade, external imbalances, and digitalization.
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